|
|
 | |||||||||||||||||
|
|
Handicapping the field
Posted: Sunday March 07, 1999 11:16 PM
Sports Illustrated senior writer Tim Crothers sizes up the NCAA draw in a Sunday night conversation with CNNSI.com. Toughest Region: The Midwest to me is clearly the toughest because I think the quality of the 1-4 seeds is clearly superior to the 1-4 seeds in any other bracket. Arizona is a team that was in the Top 10 for most of the season, and you can't say that about any of the other No. 4 seeds -- Ohio State is an upstart, Arkansas was up and down, Tennessee was not even in the Top 25 most of the season. Kentucky is the defending champion, and it's the No. 3 seed in the Midwest. I think Utah is as dangerous a team as you can find in the tournament right now. Michigan State is as solid a No. 1 seed as anyone outside of Duke. You even have Kansas as a No. 6 -- I'm not a big fan of Kansas, but having Kansas as a 6 says a lot about your region. Overall it will be a very difficult bracket for anybody to survive. Easiest Region: No question it's the South. That is wide-open to me. You have a No. 1 seed in Auburn with a team full of players who have never played in the NCAAs. You have a Maryland team that historically has underachieved in the NCAA Tournament. St. John's struggled toward the end of the season. Ohio State is similar to Auburn in that its players don't have much NCAA experience. If you're going to see a Cinderella come out of a region, it seems like the South is the region to look in. If you're one of the top four seeds, you have to be looking at the other three and thinking, "I love the spot I'm in." Surprise Omissions: The one I'm most surprised about is Xavier. The Musketeers didn't do well in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and hurt themselves with that. But they have some very good players on that team. James Posey is probably one of the most underrated players in the country. They have a pair of senior guards who have played together for years in Gary Lumpkin and Lenny Brown. Xavier is a team that I was looking at for an upset special in the first round, so to have them out is surprising. Surprise Inclusions: This year you could pretty much pick any of the No. 12 seeds and you could make an argument for Xavier over any of them -- except Rhode Island, which had an automatic berth. Oklahoma as a 13 seed obviously didn't do a whole lot to impress the committee if you look at its wins and losses. There's not a whole lot there to recommend the Sooners. Of all the teams in the tournament, I would feel most grateful toward the committee if I were Oklahoma. Surprising Seeds: I'm surprised that Miami (Fla.) is as high as it is. The Hurricanes did have a good year in the Big East, but they didn't make the tournament final, which they thought they had to do to get a 2 seed. Look at what they did against St. John's -- which is a a No. 3 to Miami's 2 -- especially in the last meeting where they lost in the Big East Tournament semifinals. But if you ask St. John's whether it would rather be a 2 seed somewhere else or be in the East as a 3, I think the Red Storm will take where they are. I'm also surprised the College of Charleston is as low as it is. John Kresse told me that one thing the team hoped was to not have to play a 1 or a 2 in the subregional. The feeling was they would rather be a 12 than an 8, because the players felt they could beat a 5 seed in the first round (and then would play a 4 seed in the second round), and make the Sweet 16 without having to face a 1 or a 2. Be careful what you wish for, because after clamoring for more respect Charleston was given an 8, but I think they'd rather be a 12. Intriguing First-Round Matchups: One of the most interesting is Florida-Penn in the West, in terms of contrasting styles. Penn is not quite Princeton -- the Quakers aren't going to run the clock all the way down on every possession and back-cut you to death -- but in terms of two teams playing as different styles as you can get in a first-round game, Florida-Penn is worth keeping an eye on. First-Round Upset Specials: I love Gonzaga. The Bulldogs were seeded lower than I would have thought and Minnesta didn't finish very strong. If there's a game where I think the seeding should almost be reversed, Gonzaga-Minnesota would be the game. Another game featuring a team that is vastly overrated against a team that nobody knows about is Arkansas-Siena. Arkansas finished strong in the SEC Tournament, but the Razorbacks hadn't done much until they beat Auburn toward the end of the season. This is a team of good players that hasn't quite jelled, and I think their No. 4 seed is outrageously high. If you're looking for a potential whopping upset featuring a top-four seed, this might be the game.
Easiest Path to Final Four: Maryland was so depressed after losing to North Carolina in the ACC semifinals, thinking it had lost a No. 1 seed, but the way it worked out I don't think the Terrapins could be any happier. St. John's is a good team as well in that region -- I like the chances of either St. John's or Maryland getting to the Final Four. Also, I'm a big fan of Utah. Michigan State would be a tough game for the Utes, and they would have to play Kentucky even to get that far. Utah is hard to handicap because it hasn't played the same quality competition as other top teams so it's hard to know where they fit into the mix. But that may be a team that sneaks into the Final Four that isn't a No. 1 seed. Final Four Picks: Duke, Utah, St. John's, Connecticut Possible Final Four Darkhorses: First, I'll just eliminate anyone else in Duke's region. You can't discount Kentucky after it won the SEC championship. I think Stanford has a fighting chance against UConn, but I favor UConn because the Huskies have played the Cardinal at Storrs and at Palo Alto in the last two years and blown the doors off them in both games, and UConn is not a great matchup for them. But there will certainly be a revenge factor if the two teams meet, and Stanford will have plenty of motivation. As for darkhorses outside of top four seeds, I'd love to be able to call them out but I just don't see it. I like Gonzaga and College of Charleston, but unfortunately I think they both got the worst possible draws they could have gotten. Texas could make a run into the Final Eight, but then the Longhorns would have to face Duke. I think Florida could do that, too -- but not the Final Four. Arizona is a team that is willed to succeed by Jason Terry, who has a ton of NCAA experience. I see the Wildcats having a pretty easy run until they face Michigan State, though I give them a fighting chance against the Spartans. NCAA Champion: Duke. I just don't know how anyone could argue, as much as I'd like to. Everyone in the world is going to be fighting themselves to pick Duke. Those of us who fill out brackets have a strong desire to pick against the prohibitive favorite, especially when it's Duke because there is a natural bile around the country toward Duke. But after looking at the bracket, it's hard to find a team that you can honestly back to beat Duke right now.
| |||||||||||||||||
Copyright © 1999 CNN/SI. A Time Warner Company. Terms under which this service is provided to you.
| ||||||||||||||||||
