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Dr. Z's Super Bowl Matchups
Posted: Thursday January 27, 2000 03:02 PM
Sports Illustrated NFL guru Dr. Z analyzes the Super Bowl matchup between the St. Louis Rams and Tennessee Titans, explains which team has the edge at each position and forecasts the outcome.
Matchups: Offense | Defense | Special Teams | Coaching | Forecast
| OFFENSE |
| Rams | | Titans |
| Torry Holt (88): Proved his toughness in Bucs game when he came back from bruised ribs to catch five more passes. | WR
 | Kevin Dyson (87): During the course of the season and postseason, he's averaged three catches for 37 yards per game. This is not going to strike terror into the hearts of Rams DBs. |
| Orlando Pace (76): Gave up no sacks or SPs (what I call Serious Pressures) vs. Tampa Bay. Most of Marshall Faulk's decent runs in an anemic rushing attack came on his side. | LT
| Brad Hopkins (72): An O.K., not great, game against Tony Brackens' quickness last week. No sacks allowed, although Brackens picked up one on a Steve McNair scramble. |
| Tom Nutten (72): One force, but decent run blocking against Warren Sapp, who went for the bagel on tackles and assists. | LG
 | Bruce Matthews (74): Steady, as usual, last week. Technically one of the best. No signs of wearing down. |
| Mark Gruttadauria (60): Kept the middle clean against Brad Culpepper. A position blocker without real punch. | C
| Kevin Long (60): Fine game against the Jags. Came on late. |
| Adam Timmerman (62): Normally steady but a little fluttery at times last week. Three penalties on one series. | RG
| Benji Olson (75) Big outing vs. Jags. Best Titans' O-lineman, at least in my scoring, two games in a row. |
| Fred Miller (73): The amplified crowd noise, plus Jevon Kearse, did Freddy in during the last Tennessee contest. A revenge game for him. Watch for the Rams to go unbalanced at times, bringing Pace over for a two-tackle load aimed at Kearse. | RT
| Jon Runyan (69): Big musher. Will have his hands full with All-Pro Kevin Carter. |
| Roland Williams (86): Had the Rams' longest gain of the day (22 yards) against the Bucs' double-zone, until Ricky Proehl's 30-yard game-winner at the end. Will share time with Jeff Robinson (45) and Ernie Conwell (84). Az-Zahir Hakim (81), a burner prone to drops, comes in for long-yardage plays. | TE
| Frank Wycheck (89): Seldom leaves the field. Pro Bowler with a knack for finding the soft spots. Titans' leading receiver in the postseason. |
| Kurt Warner (13): Three picks vs. the Bucs -- but then bailed the Rams out with a terrific TD throw, with two rushers in his face, to Proehl. | QB
| Steve McNair (9): Goodbye, long ball. Has thrown for 300 yards, total, in the three postseason games. Warner has topped that 10 times this season. |
| Marshall Faulk (28): The Bucs shut him down by putting a "spy" on him. Tennessee played him straight up and he accounted for 184 yards rushing and receiving. I don't think the Titans will use much spy technique, because Kearse, the logical guy to do it, is too valuable in coverage. Could be the key to the game. | RB
| Eddie George (27): As the passing game shrivels, George becomes more and more important in the offense. In the first meeting he rushed for 68 yards, the second most that St. Louis has allowed any enemy runner (the Niners' Charlie Garner had 77 in a 23-7 Rams win). |
| Robert Holcombe (25): Seven total yards against the Bucs. Departs in the four-wide set, and in comes Ricky Proehl (87), King for a Day last week. | FB
 | TE Jackie Harris (88): The usual starter in the Titans' two-tight end set. McNair looks for him as a dump-off receiver. Fullback Lorenzo Neal (41) is listed as the starter, but he is seldom on the field. Chris Sanders (81) comes in as the third wideout. |
| Isaac Bruce (80): Caught six shorties against Tennessee in October. Nullified last week. Look for the Rams to run him on crossing patterns against the Titans' man-to-man. | WR
| Isaac Byrd (83): Backup to injured Yancey Thigpen. His 16-catch season, counting playoffs, won't win him the battle of the Isaacs. |
| CONSENSUS |
| Yes, Tennessee gets a 5-5-1 standoff against the NFL's most dynamic offense, but four of those wins belong to the big guys up front. The Rams hold a serious edge in the big-play positions (I hate the term skill positions). |
| DEFENSE |
| Rams | | Titans |
| Kevin Carter (93): Solid game against Tampa Bay. Strong at the point. Turns on the jets in big-play pass-rush situations. | LE
| Jevon Kearse (90): Not much of a day vs. the Jags, but a wrecking ball against St. Louis in October. Minus the crowd noise, who knows? |
| D'Marco Farr (75): Actually plays more like a nose tackle and is one of the few Rams down linemen who's allowed to freelance. Very quick. | LT
| Josh Evans (91): Big game against Jacksonville, including a sack and a safety, but he was playing against the Jags' weak sister, Zach Weigert. |
| Ray Agnew (99): At 32, the elder statesman of the Rams D-line. A sound, functional two-gapper who works well within the scheme. | RT
| Jason Fisk (97): Awarded double-team treatment by the Jags. Combination plugger and pocket-collapser who can cause big problems when overlooked. |
| Grant Wistrom (98): Terrific day vs. Tampa Bay. I had him for a sack, a serious force and a created-sack, plus good work against the run. Seldom takes a play off. | RE
| Henry Ford (92) Splits the work with Kenny Holmes (99), and on my charts, the pair of them did zip against Jacksonville. |
| Mike Jones (52): Runs well. Good in pursuit and coverage. Decent at the point. | SLB
| Eddie Robinson (55) Not a true strongside plugger. Will pop up anywhere in the old Buddy Ryan 46 scheme. Active. Has become a serious blitzer down the stretch. |
| London Fletcher (59): Fiery little plugger who was a big reason why the Bucs ground game was held in check last weekend. | MLB
| Barron Wortham (52): Leaves the field in the nickel, as does Fletcher, but he'll depart on intermediate run-pass downs, too. |
| Todd Collins (54): Fairly well-hidden in the scheme. Comes out in the dime. Non-factor vs. the Bucs. | WLB
| Joe Bowden (58): Pursues, gets around the ball. Fairly active day against Jacksonville. |
| Todd Lyght (41): So-so day against the Bucs. Picked off an errant throw to Karl Williams. Was the cover man on the Bert Emanuel catch that was unfairly ruled a drop. Pro Bowl choice. | LCB
| Denard Walker (25): Has faced two straight Pro Bowl receivers, Marvin Harrison and Jimmy Smith, and did a fine job on each of them -- with inside help. Now he gets his third Pro Bowler -- Isaac Bruce. |
| Billy Jenkins (22): Made a lot of tackles against the Bucs. Only tested once in coverage, and forced Jacquez Green into a drop. | SS
| Blaine Bishop (23): The glue that holds the defense together. Right now he'd be my MVP on this team. A kamikaze when Buddy Ryan ran the unit, he has rounded off his game and is now a valuable man in coverage, often against the slot receiver. I rated him the best player on the field against both Indy and Jacksonville. |
| Devin Bush (23): Experienced. Limited range. Rams might spring a surprise and come in with six-year veteran Keith Lyle (35), who's working his way back after a long injury layoff. | FS
| Anthony Dorsett (33): Blazingly fast special-teamer who's probably the best in the business at downing punts inside the 10-yard line. Takes over for injured Marcus Robertson. St. Looie gets the edge on experience, but AD, given the chance of a lifetime, is the X-factor. |
| Dexter McCleon (21): Emanuel caught a 22-yarder against him last week. Aside from that, he had a quiet day. Intercepted a quick-up to Randy Moss in the Vikings game. Getting better. | RCB
| Samari Rolle (21): Intercepted three against the Jags in the 41-14 slaughter at the end of the regular season. Held up well against Keenan McCardell last week. A gambler who'll go for the big play. |
| Rookie Dre' Bly (32) and Taje Allen (20) are the nickel and dime backs. Bly came up with a key pick last week. Charlie Clemons (56) comes in as the rush linebacker when the Rams go with three down linemen, and he's wicked coming off the edge. | PACKAGES
| Dainon Sidney (37), a tenacious cover man, is the first DB in. Then comes nine-year veteran Steve Jackson (24), then rookie Donald Mitchell (30). People mention the eight-DB package the Titans used against St. Louis last time, but the eighth guy was really a linebacker, Terry Killens (50), who can rush or cover. |
| CONSENSUS |
| Tennessee 5-4-3. During the regular season the Rams were better, statistically, but the Titans faced better offenses. |
| SPECIAL TEAMS |
| Rams | | Titans |
| St. Louis has the better returners, including the league's best kickoff man, Tony Horne (82), who broke open the Minnesota game, and Az-Zahir Hakim (81) for punts. | Returns
| Derrick Mason (85) handles both duties for the Titans. His 80-yard TD on a return of a free kick after a safety put the lid on the Jaguars game. I rate the coverage units about even. |
| Placekicker Al Del Greco (4-for-4 against Indy) and punter Craig Hentrich get the edge ... | Kicking
| ... over the Rams' sore-legged Jeff Wilkins and Mike Horan, respectively. |
| COACHING |
| Rams | | Titans |
| The Rams' Dick Vermeil stands aside and lets his coordinators handle it, and in Mike Martz, the league's most-sought-after assistant, he's got a down-the-field attack specialist and a worthy follower in the lineage of the true West Coast offense exemplified by Sid Gillman, Don Coryell, Ernie Zampese and Norv Turner. Vermeil's defensive braintrust -- Peter Giunta and his old Eagles' linebacker, John Bunting -- is very sound scheming against the run (No. 1 in the NFL) and leans toward man-to-man matchups against the pass. | Coaching
| Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher, Buddy Ryan's old Chicago cornerback, oversees the work of Gregg Williams, who shares his passion for the blitz, backed up by man coverage. Offensively it's a buttoned up affair, run by former Vikings head coach Les Steckel, who's happiest when George carries the load and McNair throws just enough balls to qualify as a passer. |
| FORECAST |
| Coming off the Rams-Bucs game Sunday afternoon, I leaned toward St. Louis in this one. Yes, I liked the Titans' defense; yes, I was concerned about the way Tampa Bay's double-zone gave the Rams the jitters and forced them into an uncharacteristic conservative mode. But I just didn't see how a team could win without the ability to get the ball downfield.
Those thoughts are still bubbling around in my head, and I spent two days interviewing Titans players and coaches, trying to find out just why the air attack was so stagnant. Was it McNair's lack of confidence, or his inability to find his correct receivers in medium or long range, or the receivers' inability to get open? Or all of that? Or none of it? And with Thigpen out, the situation just becomes worse.
But the more I think about this Tennessee team, the more I like it in the big one. Sure, if the Titans don't get Return Freak Left they never would have gotten past the Bills. But the Rams are kind of in on a pass, too, getting the benefit of that weird reversal of Bert Emanuel's catch. Call it Tennessee's toughness, the ability to win when people write them off, the ability to do tough things. Plus the edge in the big-guy department, on both sides of the ball.
I can hear the screams now ... You picked the Rams in the magazine, now you're turning it around and going the other way. Whew, what a copout. The guy wants it both ways. Sorry, but I don't see the sign that says that a young fella can't change his mind. | | My Prediction: Titans 20, Rams 17 |
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