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Expect Braves, Yankees in Series

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Posted: Thursday September 23, 1999 03:46 PM

The old adage is that hot pitching and defense wins in the postseason. But this year in the National League, that doesn't really suggest a clear cut favorite to win the pennant.

Take a look at the starting pitching numbers of the four teams I expect to make the playoffs. Arizona, Houston and Atlanta's starting staffs have nearly identical ERAs, with the Mets trailing. However, New York's relief staff compares favorably to the other three teams. And the Mets have the clear edge in defense with what may be one of the best fielding infields ever.

So with everything else equal, I'm going with experience and picking the Braves to win the National League crown. This team has dealt well with injuries and a tight pennant race this season, which will help their mental toughness for the postseason.

Much has been made about the Cleveland Indians' troubles with starting pitching when it comes playoff time. Since 1995, Indians pitchers are 0-7 in Game One starts. and have a combined ERA over 7.

Here's why winning Game 1 is so important. Since the beginning of wild card play in 1995, the team that's won the first game of a playoff series has won the series 22 of 28 times. Surprisingly, the Indians have managed to dig themselves out of a hole four times in the last four years. I expect them to face the Yankees in the ALCS but with New York's pitching advantage, I see the Yankees returning to the World Series.

Quiet superstars

And finally, it's always easier to put up big numbers when you are playing on a good team and are protected in the lineup by a lot of big bats. So let me give some credit to two guys who have had monster years without a lot of help.

Vladimir Guerrero of the Expos could finish the year hitting over .300 with 40-plus HRs and 120-plus RBIs. He is just as good as Ken Griffey Jr. through 400 games. The only catagory he trails Junior in over that time is stolen bases.

Until he was hurt, Pittsburgh's Brian Giles was on a pace to hit 40-plus home runs this year, a mark only Ralph Kiner and Willie Stargell have reached in the Pirates' 118-year history.

Can you imagine what kind of numbers Giles would have put up if he was still in the Cleveland Indians' murderers row. It's kind of scary isn't it?

Ozzie Smith, a 15-time All-Star, is a baseball analyst for CNN/SI, the 24-hour sports news network from CNN and Sports Illustrated. His column appears each week during the baseball season, exclusively at CNNSI.com.

 

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