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What happened to the stolen base?
In 1985, my St. Louis Cardinals team stole 314 bases on the way to the World Series. This year only one team in all of baseball, the Florida Marlins, are on pace to steal even half that many. Vince Coleman stole 110 bases on that '85 team, and that's more than 24 teams are on pace to steal all this season. You can see the decline of the stolen base by looking at the rise of the home run. In 1985, major league teams stole an average of 119 bases and hit 138 home runs. But over the last 15 years, steals are down more than 17 percent and homers have increased by 45 percent. Teams simply don't want to run themselves out of an inning when they can wait around for a three-run homer. But that strategy can backfire. Remember, home runs are usually the product of a mistake by the pitcher. You don't see many mistakes in the playoffs, and that's why teams like the Yankees, who don't rely on just home runs, rise above homer happy opponents in the postseason. A major league catcher who throws out 30 percent of base stealers is considered to be very good. That's a 70 percent chance of getting a runner in scoring position. And remember, speed doesn't slump. On that other hand, If you have the best home run hitter in baseball at the plate, he'll only hit a home run 8 percent of the time. Over the long haul, I'll take my chances with a steal and a single over the home run. Ozzie Smith, a 15-time All-Star, is a baseball analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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