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Conventional wisdom All signs point to Beijing winning 2008 Olympic bid
If common sense earns an Olympic nod, then Beijing should come out tops in the race to stage the 2008 summer games. But if politics overshadows sport in the bidding process -- and when has that ever happened before? -- then Beijing may have most to hide and lose. The Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee has drawn up its short list of five candidates for 2008: Beijing, China; Istanbul, Turkey; Osaka, Japan; Paris, France; and Toronto, Canada. The common sense thing concerns timing. One of the cities appears to have it more than the others. Beijing led entering the last round of voting for the 2000 games, only to lose by two votes in the end to Sydney. The Chinese kept a low profile in the bidding process for 2004, knowing the summer Olympics wouldn't be staged in that part of the world for a second successive time. True to form, a European city won hosting rights for 2004. Athens, Greece, will stage the biggest sporting spectacle on the planet. Beijing instead regrouped for an all-out assault on the 2008 Olympics. Among the five cities left in the running, it appears to have the early lead. Paris after Athens? I doubt it, especially as the 2006 Winter Games are also in the European city of Turin, Italy. Istanbul after Athens? Ditto. A third consecutive Turkish bid is alive only because the IOC Executive Board bent the rules. The other four cities passed the grade in the new IOC candidate acceptance procedure. Istanbul didn't. "The inclusion of Istanbul was essentially because they were so close to the line and had bid before," said IOC vice-president Kevan Gosper. "There was a majority view we should include them as well." Paris and Istanbul should've waited to challenge for the 2012 games. And for those who claim they're contending only because you need a "dry run" bid before finally getting the IOC's seal of approval, there are numerous examples to disprove the theory. Istanbul's first bid hardly helped them in the race for 2000 did it? Osaka's timing is somewhat better. But the winter games of Nagano are too recent a memory for Japan to earn summer hosting duties so quickly. The 2002 winter games are in Salt Lake City. The 1996 Summer Olympics were in Atlanta. North America isn't exactly what you would call overdue. For that reason, it could be "no" to Toronto.
And anyway, isn't Montreal still paying off the 1976 Olympic debt? That Canadian calamity could raise its ugly head again, even though Toronto bid chief John Bitove claims no taxpayers' money is included in the $3 billion budget for staging the Games. Bitove can also point to Canada's more successful hosting of the 1988 winter Olympics in Calgary. China, though, has never staged an Olympics and by the time 2008 comes around it will be 20 years since the Far East last hosted a summer Olympiad. Seoul, South Korea, did a sterling job that year. Since then, it's been Europe (Barcelona 1992), North America (Atlanta 1996), Oceania (Sydney 2000) and Europe (Athens 2004). Asia has to be next in line. But will Beijing have the stamina to stand the intense pace over the next 10 1/2 months, before the IOC names the name at next July's session in Moscow? China offers a huge, untapped market for the Olympic movement. However, the country's human rights record could become a major obstacle. Pro-Tibet groups are already vowing to disrupt Beijing's bid. At least the Chinese aren't alone in the demonstration stakes. Protesters from Canada traveled to IOC headquarters in Lausanne, Switzerland, for the announcement of finalists and vociferously voiced their concern about the use of Adams Mine as a Toronto refuse dump. Pamphlets were handed out, declaring in bold black letters: "Help Stop the Toronto Olympic Bid." IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch washed his hands of the trouble, saying: "This is a Toronto problem. You have to solve this problem, not here in the IOC, you have to solve this problem in Toronto." It isn't the first and won't be the last hiccup for Toronto. Every other city left in 2008 contention will endure its fair share of trouble in the next year or so, too. But Beijing will triumph, in spite of human rights condemnation. I was in Beijing when the announcement for 2000 came. Going against his usual custom of simply stepping up to the microphone, opening the envelope and announcing the winner, Samaranch decided he would thank the bidding cities -- in alphabetical order. Beijing was top of the list of thanks. The people of China heard a few mumblings of Samaranch English and then the word "Beijing", at which point the city erupted in celebration. Fireworks went off, there were shrieks of joy and strangers hugged each other in scenes of unconfined delight to mark a famous night for China. Several minutes later, calm was restored and the bad news offered up by we English-speaking deliverers of doom. Sydney won -- not you! This time, I suspect the people of Beijing will be able to celebrate for real.
Phil Jones is co-host of World Sport, the international sports show that airs live on CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNN International.
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