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Will GMs succumb to Big Man-itis?
Posted: Tuesday June 27, 2000 01:37 PM
I have nothing against Chris Mihm and Joel Przybilla, the two highest-rated centers in Wednesday's draft. I have not spent hours breaking down game tape of them, I haven't had them in for individual workouts, I have not conducted background checks on them. But if I were an NBA general manager I would not draft them, at least not nearly as high as they are expected to be drafted. Mihm and Przybilla will probably both be lottery picks because too many GMs around the league refuse to learn from their mistakes. Year after year they continue to suffer from Big Man-itis, the disease that makes them so fascinated with true, back-to-the-basket centers that they draft them too early and pass up smaller players who are more talented. Almost every year at this time there is another outbreak of the malady. We can go back as far as 1984, when the Portland Trail Blazers took Kentucky center Sam Bowie with the second pick of the draft and passed up a pretty good player named Michael Jordan, who went to Chicago with the next pick. We can also take just a short trip back to 1998, when the Los Angeles Clippers made Pacific center Michael Olowokandi the first overall pick of the draft, ignoring another North Carolina product you may have heard of -- Vince Carter, who didn't go until No. 5 and wound up in Toronto. Two isolated examples, you say? Not enough proof that this is an epidemic we're talking about? Then consider 1994, when the Celtics picked ninth and the Lakers 10th. The Celts narrowed their pick down to two players, one a center and one a swingman. Boston general manager M.L. Carr decided what many of his counterparts often decide: when in doubt, go big. So the Celtics took North Carolina center Eric Montross and left the swingman, Temple's Eddie Jones, sitting there for the Lakers to grab. Is it any wonder that the Lakers have returned to championship glory while the Celtics are still bumbling around? In 1989, the Kings took Pervis Ellison when they could have had Sean Elliott or Glen Rice. In 1995, it was Bryant Reeves to Vancouver ahead of Michael Finley and Damon Stoudamire. In 1993, the 76ers took Shawn Bradley when Penny Hardaway and Allan Houston were available. But the two years in which the league was absolutely feverish with Big Man-itis were 1985 and '96. In the infamous Big Man Bust of '85, three centers went in the first six picks -- Benoit Benjamin, Jon Koncak and Joe Kleine, all of whom turned out to be marginal players. The seventh pick was future Dream Teamer Chris Mullin. In '96, three centers went in the first 12 picks -- Erick Dampier, Todd Fuller and Vitaly Potapenko. The 13th choice? Kobe Bryant. This isn't to say it's always a mistake to pick a big man. Sometimes there are no-brainers like Shaquille O'Neal or Tim Duncan out there. When the choice is closer, there have been times when choosing the true center turned out to be the right move. In 1992, the Charlotte Hornets were faced with a choice between center Alonzo Mourning and forward Christian Laettner, and they certainly made the right decision -- Mourning. But aside from the true franchise-makers, centers are very often overrated in the draft, usually going anywhere from five to 10 picks earlier than they should. Maybe Mihm and Przybilla will be the exceptions. Maybe they'll turn out to be the second coming of Russell and Chamberlain. It's just that history says it's more likely the teams who draft them will one day have some explaining to do. Maybe someday GMs will learn how to treat Big Man-itis: When they're struck with the urge to draft a center, unless he looks like he could play in the All-Star game tomorrow, it's usually best to lie down until the feeling passes. Sports Illustrated senior writer Phil Taylor covers the NBA and appears
regularly on CNN/Sports Illustrated and CNN's This Week in the NBA. Look for his
column every Tuesday on CNNSI.com.
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