Baseball

Defective?
Underachieving Cuban pitchers are an increasingly risky investment

THREE MONTHS ago righthander Maels Rodriguez defected from Cuba hoping to find the same frenzy for his sendees that followed the arrivals of Ariel Prieto, whom the Athletics drafted instead of Todd Helton in 1995, and Jose Contreras, to whom the Yankees last winter gave a bigger four-year contract ($32 million) than the one Jason Schmidt had received from the Giants the year before ($30 million). Rodriguez's agent, Henry Vilar, said in December that Contreras's deal was "a good starting point" for negotiations. But after the failure of several Cuban pitchers to adapt to the more rigorous major leagues, Rodriguez, 24, has been met with as much skepticism as excitement.

Last Thursday Rodriguez threw for scouts from about 15 teams in El Salvador, his temporary country of residence. Once clocked as high as 100 mph in international competition, his fastball did not exceed 90 mph. The workout left clubs wondering about his health (the Cubans say they left him off their Pan Am team last year because of right arm and back injuries) and his potential as a big league starter.

"You judge each pitcher on his own merits," says one general manager from a team that scouted Rodriguez, "but you have to be concerned about the track record of the pitchers who have come over [from Cuba]. It's a difficult adjustment. In Cuba they pitch in spurts with a lot of rest between tournaments."

The G.M. said he projected Rodriguez to be a reliever "in the mold of K-Rod," Venezuelan-born Francisco Rodriguez of the Angels, because of the workload factor and because "he's never been a pinpoint control type of guy." Asked about the likelihood of Vilar's client getting a Contreras-sized deal—the Angels, Mariners, Mets, Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees appear to be most interested—the G.M. replied, "No. I think he's more like a first-round pick." The average first-round bonus last year was $1.76 million, with top pick Delmon Young getting a five-year, $5.8 million deal.

Of the 13 Cuban pitchers in the big leagues since Rene Arocha debuted in 1993 (box, left), only three have thrown 200 innings in a season. (Rodriguez threw 113 innings last year and 178 1/3 when he set the Cuban strikeout record three years ago.) Most of the pitchers, including Contreras last year, have been beset by injuries or simply ineffective.

On the same day that Rodriguez threw for scouts, righthander Orlando (El Duque) Hernandez, who missed all of last season with a shoulder injury, did likewise in Miami. Claiming he was 85% healthy, Hernandez (listed as 34 but rumored to be four years older) didn't throw as hard as 80 mph. After going 29-13 in his first two seasons with the Yankees combined (1998 and '99), he is 24-25 over the past four years. Hernandez's raft-to-riches story swelled the mystique of Cuban pitchers, but his decline has helped diminish that aura.

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or pdf.]